Tuesday, December 2, 2014

NBA November Report

There's been some surprises this far in the NBA.  Injuries have plagued some teams, some have grown, and some have not lived up to expectations.  We'll take a look at some of these that have occurred during this young season.

Eastern Conference

The Eastern Conference has had some unexpected records so far this season.  Some teams that stick out the most are the Philadelphia 76ers, Cleveland Cavaliers, and the Charlotte Hornets.

Philadelphia was expected to be bad this year, but not to this extent.  They are currently on pace for the worst start in NBA history and are one game away from tying the record of 0-18.  They'll pick a win up at some point, they will most likely be few and far between.  The 76ers could possibly be in the running for the worst record for a full season in the history of the game.

Cleveland is a much different case than Philly.  The Cavs were highly expected to be the top of the East and an elite force in the league.  That has not happened yet as the team has taken longer to gel and come together.  They currently sit in sixth with a 8-7 record, which is percentage points ahead of Lebron's old team Miami who is 9-8.  Cleveland will turn it around and should be able to reel in some of the teams ahead of them by seasons end.  However they may have to settle for a 3 seed if it takes much longer to come together.

Charlotte has been a big surprise as they were expected to have a good season.  They unveiled new uniforms, went back to the Hornets, and brought in Lance Stephenson to an already solid core featuring Al Jefferson and Kemba Walker.  Expectations were that of a 5-7 seed by the end of the season, but they have come out the gates with a dismal 4-14 record.  They have the talent to right the ship but they may not have the time to get more than an 8 seed.  All three teams could come away with entertaining runs, just some better than others.

Western Conference

The West has also had its share of surprises.  We all know the Western Conference is strong and much deeper than the East so having some top level teams is no surprise.  The unexpectedthing was a whopping seven teams winning over 70% of their games thus far.  As of today the LA Clippers hold that seventh spot with a 12-5 record.  That would put them in second in the East just one game behind Toronto.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are in a similar spot as the Cleveland Cavs.  The difference is that they have endured multiple injuries to key players rather than learning a new system and developing chemistry.  They were expected to hover around .500 even with injuries to Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Reggie Jackson, and others.  The reserves were not able to hold up the fort in the absence of it's stars and struggled to a 5-12 record.  The good news is that Kevin Durant makes his season debut tonight.  The bad is that it will probably take 50 or more wins to make the playoffs which mean they'll have to win 66-70% of their remaining games to have a shot.

New Orleans was supposed to make a jump this year with young star Anthony Davis leading the way.  They brought in Omer Asik to start along side Davis and also signed Jimmer Fredette to add backcourt depth.  They have put enough talent together to fight for a  middling playoff spot; think in the 5-7 range.  The issue is they are playing sub par ball and has started the year 7-8.  It will be tough to reach the playoffs out West but they certainly have the talent to make a run with a chance to squeak into the seventh or eighth seed.

Monday, November 24, 2014

Middlebrooks Done in Boston?

Two years ago one of the questions in Boston was who is going to play third for the forseeable future.  The answer so they thought was a young, right handed, power hitter coming up through the minors named Will Middlebrooks.  He showed solid power potential and was given his first extended look that season.

Middlebrooks first full season with the Sox was a mixed bag.  In 94 games he only hit .227, but showed the power was legit with 17 home runs.  He was expected to be the starter throughout the 2014 season with Xander Bogaerts moving to short stop full time.  Bogaerts did move from third but Middlebrooks wasn't able to seize the opportunity.  He struggled in 63 games hitting .191 with only two home runs while also dealing with injuries. Super utility man Brock Holt along with a couple others saw starts in Middlebrooks place.  The replacements didn't set the world on fire but proved to be more productive options at this time. This helped put Middlebrooks future with Boston in question.

This off-season there have been trade rumors for a number of Red Sox players including Middlebrooks.  Nothing was set in stone but the sox have actively sought third basemen in free agency.  Contracts have been offered to former Red Sox short stop Hanley Ramirez and three time World Series champion Pablo Sandoval.

Ramirez was once seen as the short stop of the future in Boston but was shipped to Florida in a block buster trade that involved Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell.  He is a career .300 hitter with 191 home runs and 654 RBIs.  What has made him even more intriguing is that he is open to a position change which could be either third or outfield.  Ramirez agreed to an offer said to be 5 years $90mil with Boston and will be finalizing the deal this week.

Pablo Sandoval has come up with the San Francisco and has played third base exclusively.  He has had some weight issues but the talent is undeniable.  The switch hitter has hit .294 with 106 home runs and 462 RBIs since his debut in 2008.  He claimed that he will make his decision next week, but reports have stated that he is leaning toward taking Boston's 5 year $95mil offer.  It is also said that the Sox may be willing to bring in both players.

The ability to bring in a proven veteren, possibly two, on long term deals can't bode well for Middlebrooks future in Boston.  He also had prospect Garin Ceccini making a case as an in house replacement.  This move along with the depth will most likely have Boston fielding offers for Middlebrooks.  There's no doubt a team will be interested in bringing in a potential power bat to boost their lineup or increase depth.  More clarity will come next week after Sandoval's decision but don't be surprised to see Middlebrooks helping another team this season.

Thursday, November 20, 2014

Our Life Purpose

I know there's a lot of people that will agree on this topic.  It's something I think about every day.  My question is:  Do you ever feel that you are meant to do something?  Like were you put here on Earth to do something for a certain reason.

Obviously this answer will differ from person to person.  Your view can also differ from someone else's view of what you should be doing.  Some are meant to be performers and some teachers.  You may be currently fulfilling your "purpose," but most of us are still searching for the opportunity.

Personally I feel I am meant to be a basketball coach.  I've done it at two levels, but have relocated and have been unable to get back on the sidelines since.  My grasp of the game and ability to recognize and anticipate plays/sets is greater than most people I know.  Concepts and schemes come easily.  For example I went to an Oak Hill Academy game last year and by the second half I was able to consistently to call out the sets/plays they were about to run.  Basketball is what I know and what I feel I've been put here to do.  The bonus...I love the game.

I've shared my perceived purpose and now I'd like to open this up to all of you.  What do you believe you are meant to do?  Are you doing it now or still trying to obtain the goal?  Leave your response as a comment.

Thursday, November 13, 2014

Next Year/Almost There Player Check In

Each month I'll try to check in with the progress of previously mentioned players.  Today we'll talk about some of the guys with smaller or expanding roles who are almost there.  Their impact may be seen this season but is more likely to take that next step next year.

Next Year

Dennis Schroder
I initially projected that this lightning quick point guard would put up 11-3-6 by next year.  He has not seen a significant increase in minutes this year as he is only averaging 1.5 minutes more a game.  Schroder has been more effective on the court and has been a valuable source of scoring.  His 9pt 1.8rb 1.6ast/stl and outrageous .652fg% are all on pace for career highs.  I don't see him being able to sustain such a high shooting percentage as better scouting reports are developed. Expect a drop there but the counting stats should remain similar as he plays his way into a larger role.

Rudy Gobert
I believe Gobert's situation can be most closely related to Gorgui Dieng's in Minnesota.  He is the 3rd big man that specializes in blocking shots and rebounding.  Also like Dieng I mentioned that minutes could be all he needs to showcase his talents.  Minutes have not been high for him seeing he is the backup but he has managed to produce solid per 48 numbers.  So far in 16 minutes a game he's managed 4.6pt 4.5rb 0.8ast 0.4stl and 1.3blk while shooting .591 from the field.  If he can get another 8-10 minutes a game he could consistently flirt with a double double with elite block numbers.

Almost There

Donatas Motiejunas
D Mo has been given the opportunity to start a few games this year due to the injury of Terrence Jones.  The disappointing part was that he did not seize the opportunity and lost the temporary starting job to Kostas Papanikolaou.  He seems to have responded better to coming off the bench as his best game of the young season came directly after the demotion.  D Mo's line so far is 4.9pt 4.7rb 1ast and 0.4stl in 19.3 minutes a game.  He may still be a year away from being a significant contributor to Houston's front line.

CJ McCollum
McCollum has the distinct disadvantage of playing behind a young, all-star caliber player in Damian Lillard.  It will help his development in practices but results in limited game opportunities.  He's actually seen slightly less floor time this year than in his rookie year.  He is averaging 3.7pt 0.6rb and 1.3ast in a meager 10.7 minutes a night.  His average points may not be high but he has shot at a great clip from the line (100%) and deep (.462).  McCollum should be able to take off once out from Lillard's shadow whether it be by injury or trade.

Isaiah Canaan
This year Canaan has done the most of anyone on today's list.  An injury to Patrick Beverley thrust Canaan into the starting role.  He's averaging 9.1pt 2rb 1.4ast and 0.9stl in 23.1 minutes but is highlighted by a 21 point effort against Golden State.  I know I said he's done the most of today's list but his numbers are very similar to Schroder's.  The main difference in the two is that a lot of Schroder's work has been against second units while Canaan has done the majority of his work against starters.  Beverley should be back to 100% soon so Canaan's numbers should drop with the lesser role.  He should continue to receive extended time as a backup though.

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

NBA Immediate Impact 2 Week Check In

Every month we'll take a look at the players in my previous potential sleeper posts to see how they're progressing over the season.

Immediate Impact

Giannis Antetokounmpo
I'll admit, like many analysts, I expected to see more out of the Greek Freak production wise.  Granted it is still early and he has the tools to increase his production over the next couple months.  So far this season he is putting up 10.6pt 5.3rb 3.3ast with 1 3pt/blk/stl in 29.7 minutes a night.  My expectations may be too high for him this season seeing I'm disappointed with this all around production.  Don't sleep on him though because there are just reasons for his projected rise.

Nikola Mirotic
When I first wrote about Mirotic I said he could put up just over 12-4-1 and 1 steal a game given 25 minutes a night.  Joakim Noah and Pau Gasol have been playing great thus far which has significantly limited Mirotic's floor time.  This can be expected when you're part of arguably the deepest front court in the league.  He has managed to work his way into 13.1 minutes a game as the 4th big man.  In that time he has put up 3.5pt 3.1rb 0.9ast 0.4stl/blk a game while shooting great percentages from deep and the foul line (.417 and .900 respectively).  Look for his numbers to rise if given the opportunity.

Gorgui Dieng
I few weeks ago I said Dieng should get a lot more minutes with Kevin Love's departure and could become a double double machine.  Honestly I'm shocked that he is only owned in 10.6% of fantasy leagues on ESPN.  He has earned an increase in minutes this year, although it is less than I expected.  So far he is averaging only 18.7 minutes but is putting up gaudy per48 numbers.  His line is 7.5pt 7rb 0.3ast/stl and 1.7blk with great shooting percentages.  I don't understand how this man gets so overlooked with those elite block numbers, solid rebounding/points, and potential.  If you do feel like waiting then jump on him as soon as his minutes get near 25 minutes.

Nikola Vucevic
I play in a dynasty fantasy league that disbanded two deadbeat owners this past off season dropping the team count to ten.  We had a one round draft for those players dropped by the two teams and I was more than elated to see Vucevic still available with my 9th pick.  He is owned in 100% of ESPN fantasy leagues but is often forgot about by the casual fan because of his injury history and that he's in Orlando.  I had said earlier that he should give a nightly double double while contributing a little everywhere else.  All he's done thus far is put up all-star caliber numbers racking up 18.6pt 12.3rb 2.4ast 1stl 1.1blk in 36.3 minutes a game.  Remember this name and be sure to watch if you get the opportunity.  This man is a beast.

Monday, November 10, 2014

Week 2 NBA Notes

It has been an interesting first two weeks of the NBA season headlined by injuries to key guards and surprising records.

This has not been a good start to the season for guards in terms of health.  Ok I understand we already knew about Rajon Rondo, Victor Oladipo, Michael Carter-Williams, Bradley Beal, Paul George, and Russell Westbrook coming into this week.  I don't know about you, but that's enough injuries to key guards for me.

I guess we'll start with the Celtics.  Rondo came back sooner than expected but is now missing time for a follow up surgery to remove a screw from his hand.  This shouldn't sideline him for too long as he's expected to be back on Wednesday against the short handed Thunder. The Celts are also without their top pick in this years draft, Marcus Smart.  He had a scary moment last week where he came down awkwardly.  Smart may have dodged a bullet being diagnosed with only a left ankle sprain and bone bruise.  These will cause him to miss 2-3 weeks.

This may sound like a familiar story but Derrick Rose is hurt again.  He sprained both ankles and has only played in one of five games this year but is considered a game time decision.  With that said he should be back on the court in the next couple days.

Minnesota has also been bit as their star guard,  Ricky Rubio, went down with a severe ankle sprain.  This is very tough news as it will keep him out for 7-8 weeks.  If the young kids don't come together quick they could very well be near the bottom of the standings.

The league's leading scorer after last week, Klay Thompson, also got hurt with a sprained hand.  He is set to return tomorrow night, but the Warriors suffered their lone loss during his absence.

Houston is another top team missing one of their starting guards.  Point guard Patrick Beverly has been bothered by a hamstring injury the past week and has not played since 11/4.  Isaiah Canaan should continue to fill in until Beverly returns later this week.

Other injured point guards include Steve Nash, Jose Calderon, Raymond Felton, Patty Mills, George Hill.  Some other shooting guards bit by the injury bug include Nick Young, Rodney Stuckey, CJ Miles, and Martell Webster.

There has also been some surprises in the standings thus far.  I'll talk about the three from each conference that are the most unexpected.

One of the biggest surprises of the West is the Sacramento Kings who currently have the fourth best record in the west with a 5-2 record.  I understand they are better this year but really don't see them sustaining this success.  Oklahoma City has also underwhelmed thus far with a 2-5 record but that can mostly be the result of injuries. I touched on them in last week's post.  Mark Cuban has also mentioned a possibility of playing for the lottery this season because of the significant losses.  San Antonio is also below .500 at 2-3.  Don't get too used to this as they are too experienced and talented to be kept down for too long.  I expect them to be back near the top by the end of the month.

The East also has some suprises.  Indiana is as close to Oklahoma City as you can get.  Their best player, Paul George, broke his leg while with Team USA and will miss the entire season.      David West has also been hurt leaving them without their two best players.  No disrespect to Roy Hibbert, but he doesn't consistently play up to his talent level.  They should be better than their 1-6 record, but they should still be in the bottom half of the East this year.

Cleveland has many people pushing the panic button already due to their 2-3 record.  In the words of Aaron Rodgers "R-E-L-A-X."  If you and I played together tonight would we really be that good.  Give them one more week to gain familiarity and trust with each other.  The wins will start piling up real soon.

The final surprise is the success of the Miami Heat.  Many people expected them to fall off with the departure of LeBron James, but all they've done is won to the tune of 5-2.  Chris Bosh has performed like his days in Toronto and Dwyane Wade has also turned back the clock.  I don't see Wade being able to hold up physically for the entire season or Bosh being able to carry the load all year.  With that said, they should be able to continue their streak of playoff appearances.

When all is said and done Oklahoma City should be in the fight for the 7-8 seed.  Sacramento will most likely fall out of the playoff race and be lottery bound again.  San Antonio will pull it together soon and be in the mix as one of the top 4 out West.  Indiana should be in the bottom half of the East and lottery bound.  Cleveland will have a similar track as San Antonio.  They'll come together soon and be a top 3 team in the East.  Miami will still be strong and should finish around the 4-6 seed.

Try not to get caught up in small sample sizes during a long season.  A short term injury or rough stretch in the schedule could skew the numbers.  My last bit of advise today is to always remember to look at the bigger picture and assess all the parts when judging a team.

Monday, November 3, 2014

Week 1 NBA Notes

The first week of the NBA season just finished but not without some big headlines.  I'll touch on a few today in case you missed it.

Down but Not Out
The Oklahoma City Thunder have been hit hard so far this year.  They started the season with injuries to key role players Jeremy Lamb and Reggie Jackson.  The hard luck did not stop there though as Kevin Durant went down with a significant foot injury.  All was not lost though, as the Thunder still had a brilliant point guard in Russell Westbrook.  Westbrook was proving he was up to the task of being the main scoring option until he also went down with a broken hand.  The injury bug has certainly hit hard for Oklahoma City who is now left with just seven available players for next game.

There is a small bright side to the injuries.  After the third game they are allowed to sign an additional player to fill one of the roster spots while the others are out.  Shortly after they will be allowed to add a second player to fill in for Westbrook.  This is a roster exception in place for teams that endure many extended injuries.  It should allow them to have their roster back to nine while waiting for the troops to return.  The injuries will also allow ample opportunity for the "supporting cast" to step up and gain experience.  Perry Jones has been the main benefactor from this as he's put up two big games to start the year.  The extra reps should allow Jones and the other players to gain valuable experience and provide for a deeper bench once the four bigger names return.

Score One for the Kid
Carmello Anthony reached another milestone in his career last night.  In the first quarter against the Charlotte Hornets he received the pass from Shane Larkin for a catch and shoot 3 pointer over Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.  That basket earned him the honor of being in the 20,000 point club solidifying himself in history as one of the most dangerous scorers.  He is now one of 40 players to achieve this milestone and is the sixth youngest player to reach that mark.  Only Lebron James, Kobe Bryant, Wilt Chamberlain, Michael Jordan, and Oscar Robertson reached it at a younger age.  He should pass two more players this week and could make it all the way to number 30 on the all time list if he can match last year's output.

Show Me the Money
There were two players who became very happy this past week.  Ricky Rubio of the Minnesota Timberwolves and Klay Thompson of the Golden State Warriors signed new contract extensions that will take into effect after this season.  This marks the first big pay day for both as Rubio received a 4 year $56 mil deal and Thompson is said to have cashed in with a 4 year $70 mil deal. 

Rubio has been a side note in Minnesota the past few years due to the emergence of Kevin Love but he has been very good at point guard.  Last year Rubio finished last season second in assists behind only John Wall and first in the league in steals.  He also proved it was a good deal as the following night he went off for 6 points, 4 rebounds, 2 steals and tied a career high with 17 assists.  He should continue to be a force with the young and athletic lineup Minnesota has built.

Klay Thompson did his damage as one of the two Splash Brothers.  He finished second in 3 pointers made behind only his fellow Splash Brother, Steph Curry and was 18th in the league in scoring.  Thompson has grown from a complementary player to a major contributor in his short career which is evident by his big contract.  He, like Rubio, went out and proved it was the correct decision.  He currently leads the league in scoring average with 29.7 points per game including a 41 point explosion the day after signing.  He looks to be a top scoring option and perfect compliment to Curry giving Golden State arguably the best back court for years to come.

Saturday, October 25, 2014

Potential Sleeper Targets (The Projects)

I previously talked about guys who should have an impact anytime from now until next year.  Now we'll go into a few players who are projects with high upsides.

Spencer Dinwiddie (Point Guard, Detroit Pistons)
I really like Spencer Dinwiddie but he's still got a way to go.  His size is phenominal for a point guard at 6'6" 200lbs and should result in many mismatches.  He was drafted this year in the second round (38th overall) out of Colorado.  This position could have been much higher as his final season of college ball was cut short by an ACL injury halfway through the season.  Detroit took a chance that could pay big dividends.  The Celtics made similar moves when Avery Bradley and Jared Sullinger were red flagged due to injury.  The Pistons are hoping for the same outcome.

Dinwiddie was on track for a great season at Colorado before the injury and was able to put up 14.7pt 3.1rb 3.8ast and 1.5stl in 31.1 minutes a game.  He was able to do this while shooting decent percentages, especially from the 3 point line (41.3% 3pt and 46.6% overall).  His shooting should translate well especially in Detroit with their front line of Josh Smith, Greg Monroe, and Andre Drummond.  His size should also present issues on defense for opposing point guards as he will be one of the biggest point guards in the league.

One of his main issues (other than the injury recovery) is his spot in the rotation.  When drafted he was the last of four point guards on the roster that included Brandon Jennings, DJ Augustine, and Will Bynum.  Bynum has since been traded to the Celtics making him the third string point guard, which still doesn't bode well for playing time this year.  The Pistons will most likely send him to the D-League this season to see more floor time as he missed the entire second half of last season with injury.  His only real shot at extended minutes in Detroit is if Augustine or Jennings are traded or hurt during the season.  Keep him in mind for the future though.  He should help score and facilitate with a healthy steal or two a game.

Lucas Nogueira (Center, Toronto Raptors)
Nogueira, nicknamed "Bebe," is the longest shot of the three I plan on talking about.  He has plenty of height at 7' but his biggest knock coming into the league was his strength.  Bebe has been criticized saying he needs to add weight and strength to what was his 210lbs frame which will help with his toughness and durability.  He has worked to put on muscle and is now at 220lbs.  At center, even in today's smaller game, he should need to put on probably another 10-15lbs minimal to deal with the rigors of interior play in the NBA.  He is however a good athlete with a 28" vertical leap and 7'6" wingspan at his disposal.

His size as mentioned is one of his biggest strengths as it allows him to alter and block many shots.  Bebe has shown a knack for getting to offensive rebounds and runs the floor very well for a big man.  These allow him the opportunity for easy buckets which should also allows for a high shooting percentage.

I don't believe he will play much this year in the NBA but will see significant time in the D-League.  However he is one injury away from a larger role with the team.  It is easy to get excited about Bebe because of his size, and projected potential.  He could become a double digit scorer with 6-8 rebounds and 1-2 blocks a game when all is said and done.

Bruno Cabolco (Small Forward, Toronto Raptors)
Bruno Cabolco is another highly touted young big man for Toronto who could be one of the center pieces of this team in a few years.  Cabolco was Toronto's first round draft pick (20th overall) in the draft this year.  It made a lot of people scratch their heads and respond "who?"  After doing some research on him its easy to see what Masai Ujiri saw in Cabolco.

He has great size and has been compared to Giannis Antetokounmpo as far as physical measurements go.  The nineteen year old comes in at 6'9" 205lbs and a massive 7'7" wingspan.  He differs from the Greek Freak in the fact that he is not as good at handling the ball and at this stage of his career he is more comparable to a stretch big man rather than a guard. 

His stats are not glamorous and gaudy like you would expect from a first round pick, but there is an immense amount of potential that he could realistically reach.  Last year with Pinheiros of the Brazilian league he registered 5.1pt 2.9rb and 0.7blk in a meager 13 minutes a game.  They may not look at much but if extended to starter minutes the numbers would be of a solid starter or sixth man.  Cabolco is very raw at this stage of his career but is also very young.  Given a few years of experience I believe he could get in the range of 16pt 7rb 2ast 1stl 1blk a game.  It's a gamble in that he could not pan out but then if his potential is met those numbers could all be low.  He is definitely worth keeping an eye on as he is a potential starter and stud for Toronto.



Sunday, October 19, 2014

Potential Sleeper Targets (Almost There)

I cut the last post short due to not having much time to post lately and not wanting to take too long of a break.  Here's a couple more guys that should have an impact as soon as next year.

Donatas Motiejunas (Power Forward, Houston Rockets)
Donatas Montiejunas (D Mo) is another foreign player trying to make his mark on the league.  He was highly regarded as an international prospect and was the 20th pick of the first round in 2011.  He went three spots ahead of Nikola Mirotic, although I believe Mirotic will be the better of the two.  D Mo should have a decent to good career despite this.

He has decent size at 7' 222lbs but could probably stand to gain 10 more pounds to help with the physical interior play that he'll encounter.  D Mo was also able to learn from some pretty good guys who were ahead of him on the depth chart.  Sharing a front court with Terrence Jones, Omer Asik, and Dwight Howard hurt his playing time last season but the knowledge gained could be very useful going forward.  He put up 5.5pt 3.6rb 0.5ast in 15.4 minutes a game.  They may not look like much on the surface but if you look at what they'd project to at starters minutes they look much better.  Those numbers would jump to 11pt 7.2rb 1ast a game which are not eye popping, but still solid numbers.  Time has opened as Omer Asik and Chandler Parsons both left this year which could open up a lot more minutes and opportunities for him.

CJ McCollum (Combo Guard, Portland Trailblazers)

CJ McCollum is another good young talent from a mid major university.  The Lehigh standout was the 10th overall pick in last years draft.  He has good size at 6'4 200lbs, which allows him to play both point and shooting guard.

Last year McCollum was similar to Montiejunas in that he didn't play a lot but still put up decent per 48 numbers.  In 12.5 minutes he put up 5.3pt 1.3rb 0.7 ast and 0.4 stl while shooting .416% from the field and .375% from deep.  Even if you just go by 37.5 minutes a game he's at 15.9pt 4.2rb 2.1ast and 1.2stl.  Those are not all star numbers but still very serviceable.  The shooting leaves something to be desired but I wouldnt get too caught up in that low number.  He was a very good scorer in college and put Lehigh on his back multiple times.  Low minutes can also make it tough to get in a scoring groove.

The biggest road block for McCollum is another young talent named Damian Lillard.  Lillard was near the top of the league in minutes played last season.  This provided very little time for McCollum to see the floor.  However I feel the Blazers will reduce Lillard's work load down to 30-35 minutes a game.  This should help give McCollum the opportunity to play 15-20 minutes a night.  His field goal percentage and counting stats should rise with the extended time.  He shouldn't see significant playing time, barring injury, until next season where he should be up to 20-25 minutes.  Once that happens he'll be a very solid contributor from both guard spots.

Isaiah Canaan (Point Guard, Houston Rockets)
It wouldn't be right to talk about mid major talent without mentioning Isaiah Canaan.  The second year guard (second round, 34th overall pick) out of Murray State torched his competition in college.  His 21.8 points a game was good enough to be top 10 in the nation.  Canaan also received accolades from Chris Paul before the 2013 draft saying "he wasted a year in college."  Paul claimed he was good enough to come out after his junior year and should have made the jump a year sooner.

Last season wasn't exactly the greatest situation for Canaan in Houston.  Minutes were sparse as he was buried behind Jeremy Lin and Patrick Beverly on the depth chart.  He had too much potential to waste away on the bench so the Rockets sent him to Rio Grande to further develop in the D League.  He proved he was worth the pick and could warrant playing time in Houston soon.  All he did was make the D League All Star team.

Canaan's hard work may pay off this season.  Lin has left for the Lakers, making Beverly the starter and Canaan the primary back up.  This means an increase in playing time.  Naturally his 4.6pt 1.1rb 1ast and 0.4stl in 11.5 minutes a game should all increase.  He should see about 20-25 minutes a night as a compliment to Beverly.  Beverly is a defensive minded guard while Canaan is a scoring point guard.  I don't see him shooting for high percentages but he should see double figure scoring as early as this year.  I can see him putting up similar numbers to McCollum next year, if not better at about 14pt 2rb 4ast 1stl a game.  As I've said before these are not eye popping but definitely servicable numbers.  Remember the name as it could pay off later.

Friday, October 17, 2014

Potential Sleeper Targets (Next Year)

Yesterday I started this segment on potential sleepers or under valued players at this point in their careers.  Today I will continue the talk on some players with an outside shot at making a significant impact this season but project to be contributors next year.  Keep in mind this is all barring health and no moves blocking player development.

Dennis Schroder (Point Guard, Atlanta Hawks)
Dennis Schroder is a young German point guard who was drafted last season by the Atlanta Hawks.  He received some pre-draft buzz due to his physical make up, drawing comparisons to the Celtics Rajon Rondo.  The comparison is primarily due to his quickness and lanky, long frame.  Schroder checks in at 6'2" 168 lbs with a wingspan just under 6'8".  Physically he resembles Rondo, but the comparisons stop there.  He had a rough rookie season with limited playing time, where Rondo when healthy is a triple double threat.  I wouldn't get caught up in his rookie season though as there is a good chance he can turn it around.

As I said his rookie season was not one to write home about with low numbers across the board.  The rookie averaged 3.7pts 1.2rb 1.9ast in just 13.1 minutes a game.  He should give better numbers this year as he has more experience under his belt.  The fact that Lou Williams is no longer a Hawk will definitely help Schroder's cause as Williams departure moved him to a backup role from third string.  The should result in more minutes and valuable experience this year.  His numbers shouldn't blow anyone away this year but I can see him improving to the tune of 8pt 3rb 4ast a game as a primary backup.

I'm expecting him to improve each of the next two seasons seeing he is a young 21 year old point guard.  It is the toughest position to come into as a young player.  The two years experience should allow him to grow and develop better leadership and fundamentals.  His numbers should increase the third season as well.  I believe he will be around 11pt 3rb 6ast a game by his third season.  Schroder should be a player to keep an eye on as he harnesses his ability and should be a player that uses his speed and length to improve the players around him.

Rudy Gobert (Center, Utah Jazz)
Rudy Gobert is another foreign second year player looking to make a jump.  He is one of the tweeners as he could possibly make an impact this season.  He is lauded for his immense size and length which will help him continue to protect the paint.

Gobert is an imposing physical presence.  He stands at 7'2" 238lbs with a 7'8" wingspan.  His massive reach has already allowed him to be a destructive force as a rookie, albeit in limited action.  He has also shown strides this summer as evidenced by a 20 rebound game.  The offense may lag behind the defense but his rebound and block numbers could be tantalizing.

His main issue is that he's strictly a center on the Jazz and stuck behind Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter on the depth chart.  Kanter has shown the ability to rebound but has lacked consistency.  That inconsistency has lead to questions about his future in Utah.  If he leaves Gobert could get a great opportunity at a starting job as Favors can also play power forward.  Minutes could be all Gobert needs for his skills to come together and really take off.  I believe if the minutes are there the production will follow.

This is the only two for now.  I will add three more players for this category in the next day or two.

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Potential Sleeper Talent (Immediate Impact)

It's about that time of year again and my favorite season starts in just two short weeks!  The NBA is in the middle of preseason play and officially tip off the season on October 28.  I thought this would be a good time to talk about some under the radar players.  They've been separated into three groups: Immediate Impact, Next Year, and Couple Years Out.  There could be a little overlap depending on quickness in development or if they are moved into a bigger role due to injury or trade.  Either way keep an eye out for these guys as they could potentially become household names in the future.

Giannis Antetokounmpo (Shooting Guard/Small Forward, Milwaukee Bucks)
This guy known as the "Greek Freak" is probably the most well known player of the segment.  He's become more well known after is work last season and moreso from the FIBA Games this past summer.  Antetokounmpo is a second year player for the Milwaukee Bucks and splits time between small forward and shooting guard.  The nickname comes from his outrageous size as he's now 6'11" 217lbs with a 7'5" wingspan.  His size creates mismatches on either end of the floor.  He's able to create off the dribble and run the pick n roll which makes it extremely tough for bigger players to defend.  His size also makes it tough for smaller guards to try to defend him as he's able to shoot over the top.

He is a player that will give you some of everything on the court.  Last season he played 24.6mpg and put up 6.8ppg 4.4rb 1.9ast with 0.8stl and blk.  He only knocked down 0.5 three pointers a game but it was at .347% showing he's more than capable of making more.  He should be in line for more playing time this season and Coach Jason Kidd has even toyed with putting him at point guard during some stretches.  Antetokounmpo actually played this position in their last preseason game.  This should help him increase both his points and assists per game.  Added size (he was 6'9" 200lbs last season) will help his ability to grab rebounds and defend.  There should be increases across the board.

I'll admit I had no clue who he was until the draft last year.  Once I saw him play I did some research and absolutely love what his game can become.  I viewed him as being on the same track as Paul George in terms of how he develops.  Last year was about experience, this year's his coming out, and next year he'll be a star.  Absolutely check him out because Jabari Parker is not the only Buck worth talking about.

Nikola Mirotic (Power Forward, Chicago Bulls)
Nikola Mirotic is another high level foreign talent who will be playing power forward for the Chicago Bulls this year.  He has gained some exposure through ESPN, but it died off a bit when Pau Gasoline was brought to town.  This kid coming to the NBA is the reason the Bulls were able to get rid of Carlos Boozer.  He stands at 6'10" 225lbs will fight for playing time in a loaded front court.  His impact won't be as immediate as Antetokounmpo's but Chicago didn't wait on him a couple years so he could ride the pine.  His presence will be felt as a stretch four as soon as extended playing time opens, whether it be from injury or outperforming one of the incumbents.

Mirotic was drafted back in 2011 but has been playing overseas since.  His strength is his shooting ability for his size.  Last year for Real Madrid CF he averaged 12.4pts 4.6rb 1.2ast and 1stl a game while shooting .508% from the field and .461% from three point land.  I expect similar numbers if he can get 20-25 minutes a night.  Derrick Rose should be wicked excited to play with a big that can step out to clear the lane while also posing a serious threat as a shooter.

He should be a big weapon for this team going forward.  Not only does he help make up one of the deepest front courts in the league but also fills a big role that can have a major impact.  He should be the best jump shooting big man on the team.  If I had to compare him to another player I'd say probably Ryan Anderson as they are both power forwards that are deadly from deep and will also haul in a few rebounds.  Keep a watchful eye on Mirotic as his numbers should increase with his playing time.

Gorgui Dieng (Center, Minnesota Timberwolves)
Gorgui Dieng is a second year center out of Louisville who stands in at 6'11" 238lbs.  He did receive some fanfare (not nearly enough) last year when he filled in for starter Nikola Pekovic.  Dieng was seen more of a defensive player who was very limited offensively coming out of college.  That held true to a point during his rookie season where he only averaged 4.8pts 5rb and 0.8blk a game on 49.8% shooting.  I realize the overall numbers are far from gaudy but don't let them fool you.

As I said Nikola Pekovic went down last season with injury and missed some significant time down the stretch.  Dieng was called upon for an extended role and filled in admirably as the starting center. Admirably may be an understatement as he was like a man possessed on the boards.  He almost instantly became a walking double double good for about 12.2pt 12rb 0.9stl and 1.7blk a game in fifteen starts.  He's also played very well wo far this preseason and shown he's ready to be called upon again.

Dieng should once again start the year behind Pekovic but should be alotted more minutes.  The departure of Kevin Love left a gaping hole in their front court and I'd be willing to bet Dieng takes a good chunk of those extra minutes.  His value may be tied to his minutes but he should be in line for a bump up in time.  If the minutes are there he should wreck havoc on the glass while being disruptive in the paint.  Look for him to be a double double machine again soon.

Nikola Vucevic (Center, Orlando Magic)
I have no clue how this guy has been under the radar for fans.  He was a big part of the Dwight Howard/Andrew Bynum deal that sent him from Philly to Orlando.  All he has done is quietly produce at the center position.  He is 7' 240lbs and has been the starter in Orlando since his arrival.  Injuries have limited him a little causing missed time but when he's available he's been great.  Last year he quietly put up 14.2pt 11rb 1.8ast 0.8blk and 1.1stl a game to go along with .507% shooting from the field.  All were career highs except blocks (0.9) were career highs despite only playing 57 games due to injury.

There will always be injury concerns with anyone in sports but I wouldn't be as concerned with Vucevic.  He should at minimum put up similar numbers to last season.  A full season of health could only help his cause even more allowing him to settle into a rhythm throughout the course of the year. If your looking for a low key center that will give you a little of everything including a nightly double double then look no further.  He should continue to be an inside force for years to come.

Sunday, October 12, 2014

Fan Dance Off

There's nothing like going to a game and seeing an over excited fan.  You know who I'm talking about; that guy or girl that gets up and starts dancing like there's no tomorrow.  Some stay by their seats while others roam the arenas.  The best is when other people join in on the fun.

I was actually just tagged (Thank you Chris Bookter) in a video that fits this post to a T.  This has been by far my favorite dancing fan clip and comes from a place near and dear to my heart...the TD Garden in Boston.

Check it out and tell me how this ranks for you.  If it doesn't work check it out here: Boston Celtics Dancer.  If you have one you like better share it as a comment and tell where it is.  Let the dance off begin!

Friday, October 10, 2014

Increased Wattage

I'm not going to lie.  I like the NFL but I'm not nearly as knowledgable there as with basketball or baseball.  With that said I can't help but make a post about JJ Watt.  He is an absolute monster and has become must see tv.  What he is able to do week in and week out is amazing.  

How many guys can be elite at every position on the defensive line?  You can like Watt up anywhere and he's just as disruptive.  He's not just a one trick pony with it either.  Some players are primarily run stoppers or pash rushers.  This man does it all whether it's stuffing the run, sacking the quarterback, forcing fumbles, or even picking off passes.  

What he does on the defensive side of the ball is amazing but there's more to him.  In a recent interview he told ESPN that he just tries to become the best athlete possible so his coach can use him where he sees fit.  Notice he said "athlete" not defensive lineman.  This focus has been more apparent this season as he's been utilized in other facets of the game.  A couple games ago the Texans brought in their best defensive player on offense as a tight end.  What does he do as a response to the move?  Only gets a receiving touchdown, which I have a feeling will not be his last.  I wouldn't be surprised if going forward he's used in goal line situations like Bill Belichek did with Mike Vrabel in New England.

His exploits this season has put him in rare territory.  We're not even halfway through the season and Watt has scored touchdowns on an interception return, fumble recovery, and a reception; a trio that hasn't been accomplished since 1961.  His three defensive touchdowns are just two off the record of five for a season.  Another amazing fact about this is that thus far he has scored more touchdowns than some of the top offensive weapons: JJ Watt 3 Calvin Johnson 2 AJ Green 2 Lesean McCoy 1.  This will not stand over the course of the year but is immensely impressive.

The scary part is that I have a feeling the best has yet to come.  The majority of this season has been played without number one overall pick Jadeveon Clowney due to injury.  Once he returns he will command attention from the offensive line which should open a little more breathing room for Watt.  If you have not seen him play yet then make sure you check him out.  You're sure to see a show regardless of what team they play.

Thursday, October 9, 2014

Frustration leading to Hope (Growing Cubs)

Previously I talked about the frustration for Red Sox nation due to high expectations and a lackluster performance.  Today I'll talk about a team who's been in far worse shape and has been the mark of futility for years.  The Chicago Cubs have consistently been toward the bottom of the standings.  Each year seems to have a new hope but doesn't come to fruition.  A curse with a goat has taken some blame for this as the Bambino did the Sox.  However a light may have come into sight this year with the end of the tunnel to follow.

This past season was another trying season for a club trying to pull itself out of a hole.  It was not without hope and had some positives to build on.  The Cubs had arguably the best farm system in the league this year which became stronger after the Samardzija/Hammel trade that netted them Addison Russell.  Russell along with fellow prospects Kris Bryant (3b) and Javier Baez (ss/2b) all ended the season near the top of the prospect ranks.  They were not alone on the top 100 as Jorge Soler (of), Arismendy Alcantara (ss/2b/of), Alberto Almora (of), and CJ Edwards (sp) were also on the list.

The season may not have provided the win totals to call home about they were able to bring some of these highly touted kids up to gain experience.  Alcantara led the way as the first one of them to get the call this summer.  He was then followed by Baez and Soler, who will probably have starting roles next season.  I'm expecting them to give Bryant a chance to earn the starting third base job out of camp as I thought he was the most deserving player in all the minors to get a shot.  Almora, Edwards, and Russell may get promoted up sometime next summer as well, if not then next year.

I realize that for a lot of you these are just idle names and means nothing to you.  Their skills are undeniable and should make Chicago baseball entertaining once again.  I'll do the same as I did with the Sox and go into detail about a few of these players to give you a better idea of what the excitement is about.

We'll start the conversation with Alcantara who had quite the eventful summer.  He came up through the minors as a short stop but was blocked at the pros by another young player, Starlin Castro.  However there was a need at second so Alcantara was moved to a new position.  A month or two later another top short stop prospect (Baez) was called up.  They decided to move Alcantara to the outfield and play Baez at second.  So in a matter of a couple months he got promoted, learned two new positions, and played three in Wrigley.  His numbers were not eye popping but had some solid play despite all the changes.  He has a decent power/speed combo allowing him the potential should to put up 15-20hr with similar steals while maintaining a solid batting average.  The glove should also be just fine regardless of playing second or outfield.  While he may not stand out at anything, he should be able to do a little of everything.

Next up was Javier Baez who was also a short stop in the minors.  He was expected to make a move to third base upon his arrival to Wrigley but the Cubs opted to play him at second and move Alcantara to the outfield.  Baez was one of the top 10 prospects in all the minors and a very intriguing case.  His hands are ridiculously quick and has been compared to Gary Sheffield with regards to his bat speed.  The power has also never been questioned as he was one of the top power hitters in the minors.  He has the potential to hit 30hrs a year while at second base and could quickly top the second base ranks in that department.  The problem however is his hit tool.  While his power is near the top of the ranks, his ability to make consistent contact is lagging behind.  Strike outs were a big issue during his first cup of tea in he show and he fanned more than once every three at bats.  This inability to make contact resulted in a poor batting average that hovered around .200 for a while.  Baez is still young and has ample time and opportunity to figure it out and get on track.  If he can solve his contact woes he has the potential to be one of the top power hitters in the league.  I view him as a .240 hitter with 30-35hrs a year.  It may take a year or two but he should have a significant impact soon.

The final player I'll go into detail about is the one I'm most excited about seeing.  Kris Bryant ended the season ranked as the #3 prospect and could possibly start next season as #1 overall.  He is older than both Baez and Alcantara but his road to Wrigley should be shorter.  The third baseman just finished his first full season in the minors hitting a blistering .325 with 43hr and 110rbi between AA and AAA.  What sweetens the pot even more is that he's not all bat and no speed.  Bryant also reached double digits in steals which is a very welcomed bonus coming from third base.  I firmly believe that he is the real deal and for the most part his numbers will carry over to the majors.  A drop in batting average would be no surprise but the power is legit and should result in 35-40hr yearly.  He should be given every opportunity to earn the starting job out of camp and be a serious contender for rookie of the year.  He has the potential to be a perennial all star.

The Cubs may have been experiencing some harsh times over the last decade or two but there could be a light at the end of the tunnel.  The majority of prospects mentioned should play important roles this coming season with the others to join within a year or two max.  The young hitters are arriving.  They just need the pitching to come through and they should be able to crawl out of their familiar spot in the basement.  There is much hope surrounding these kids and very good reason for it.

Wednesday, October 8, 2014

Frustration leading to Hope (New and Young Sox)

First off I want to apologize about my last post.  I was having some technical issues and it was getting late.  I realize not everyone is a Sox fan, although I believe you should, so I'll go into a little more detail about a few of these newer faces.

I'll start with Mookie Betts (who is quickly becoming my favorite player) who started the year in the minors as a 2B before switching positions and learning how to play the outfield.  By doing so he was able to get out from the Pedroia roadblock and allowed himself to play his way into Fenway.  He was able to give a spark to the offense in his short time in the bigs with line of .291ba/5hr/18rbi.  He also flashed some speed with 7 steals in 10 attempts.  This was all done as a 21 year old.  I believe that these numbers are real as he has produced well across every level. 

The next kid got his debut last year at short stop and was the youngest world series starter for the Sox since Babe Ruth.  For those of you who don't know, I'm talking about Xander Bogaerts.  Like most rookies he endured an up and down season while splitting time between third and short.  The overall numbers (.240ba/12hr/46rbi) are nothing to write home about but he did end the season on a high note hitting over .300 for the final month.  He has potential to develop into a 15-20 homer 10 steal guy with an average around .280-.290.  Add in the fact that he's only 22 years old while having played a key role on a championship team and it's easy to see why people are excited about him.

The final player I'll go into detail about is probably the least known player in their starting unit.  Rusney Castillo (cf) came over from Cuba this summer and made his debut in September.  He was one of the bigger international signings and was sought after by many teams.  Castillo is very skilled like his other countrymen: Jose Abreu and Yasiel Puig.  He may not have the prolific power of Abreu but has very good speed and has an aggressive style of play.  It's not out of the question that he could hit .290 while being a 20-20 guy with above average defense in centerfield.  Boston signed him to a big contract and it looks like they have found a very capable  replacement for Jacoby Ellsbury.

Betts, Bogaerts, and Castillo are the three I'm most excited about seeing next season.  They should play a major role in the immediate rebuild back into contender status.  Other young players to keep in mind are Blake Swihart (c), Henry Owens (sp), Garin Ceccini (3b), and Raphael Devers (3b).

Be sure to check back tommorow as we look at another team that has high hopes of picking themselves up out of the cellar within the next few years.

Tuesday, October 7, 2014

Frustration leading to Hope Part 1

As we all know baseball has come to an end for all but a select few teams.  This season has been a frustrating one for some cities and a revival for others.  My focus today will be on two teams in a similar situation but with very different expectations.  One has been in the dregs of the league for years while the other is the reigning champs.  Even with the rough stetch/es there is high optimism for the near future.

Boston as we know went from the bottom of the AL East to winning the World Series the following year.  Being from New England, I like many others expected them to compete for another title this year. Oh how wrong we were!  Not only did they not make the playoffs but finished near the bottom of the entire league.  The record wasn't bad enough.  Management conducted a fire sale disbanding much of the rotation and some position players.  It sounds like an awful situation with more to come.

There is much hope for these Sox starting as soon as next year.  All the struggles have caused people to overlook what is to come.  Six rookies started at least 60 games this year, not to mention the three rookies in the starting rotation.  These young kids were allowed to gain valuable experience and a few should have large roles in the coming seasons.  Think about it.  Mookie Betts (2b/of), Xander Bogaerts (ss), Christian Vazquez (c), Brock Holt (ss/3b/of), Joe Kelly (sp), Rubby de la Rosa (sp).  All six should have a big impact next season whether it be production based or as trade bait.  Add in the following top prospects who should be ready for Boston next season: Garin Ceccini (3b), Blake Swihart (c), and Henry Owens (sp).  A potential line up of Betts (rf) Holt (3b) Pedroia (2b) Ortiz (dh) Cespedes (lf) Napoli (1b) Castillo (cf) Bogaerts (ss) Vasquez (c).  Include some deep pockets to spend on pitching in the offseason and its easy to see why there's excitement and hope for next year.

Check back tomorrow for Part 2 where I finish my talk about the Red Sox.  I will then move on to the Cubs in a third installment.