Tuesday, December 2, 2014

NBA November Report

There's been some surprises this far in the NBA.  Injuries have plagued some teams, some have grown, and some have not lived up to expectations.  We'll take a look at some of these that have occurred during this young season.

Eastern Conference

The Eastern Conference has had some unexpected records so far this season.  Some teams that stick out the most are the Philadelphia 76ers, Cleveland Cavaliers, and the Charlotte Hornets.

Philadelphia was expected to be bad this year, but not to this extent.  They are currently on pace for the worst start in NBA history and are one game away from tying the record of 0-18.  They'll pick a win up at some point, they will most likely be few and far between.  The 76ers could possibly be in the running for the worst record for a full season in the history of the game.

Cleveland is a much different case than Philly.  The Cavs were highly expected to be the top of the East and an elite force in the league.  That has not happened yet as the team has taken longer to gel and come together.  They currently sit in sixth with a 8-7 record, which is percentage points ahead of Lebron's old team Miami who is 9-8.  Cleveland will turn it around and should be able to reel in some of the teams ahead of them by seasons end.  However they may have to settle for a 3 seed if it takes much longer to come together.

Charlotte has been a big surprise as they were expected to have a good season.  They unveiled new uniforms, went back to the Hornets, and brought in Lance Stephenson to an already solid core featuring Al Jefferson and Kemba Walker.  Expectations were that of a 5-7 seed by the end of the season, but they have come out the gates with a dismal 4-14 record.  They have the talent to right the ship but they may not have the time to get more than an 8 seed.  All three teams could come away with entertaining runs, just some better than others.

Western Conference

The West has also had its share of surprises.  We all know the Western Conference is strong and much deeper than the East so having some top level teams is no surprise.  The unexpectedthing was a whopping seven teams winning over 70% of their games thus far.  As of today the LA Clippers hold that seventh spot with a 12-5 record.  That would put them in second in the East just one game behind Toronto.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are in a similar spot as the Cleveland Cavs.  The difference is that they have endured multiple injuries to key players rather than learning a new system and developing chemistry.  They were expected to hover around .500 even with injuries to Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Reggie Jackson, and others.  The reserves were not able to hold up the fort in the absence of it's stars and struggled to a 5-12 record.  The good news is that Kevin Durant makes his season debut tonight.  The bad is that it will probably take 50 or more wins to make the playoffs which mean they'll have to win 66-70% of their remaining games to have a shot.

New Orleans was supposed to make a jump this year with young star Anthony Davis leading the way.  They brought in Omer Asik to start along side Davis and also signed Jimmer Fredette to add backcourt depth.  They have put enough talent together to fight for a  middling playoff spot; think in the 5-7 range.  The issue is they are playing sub par ball and has started the year 7-8.  It will be tough to reach the playoffs out West but they certainly have the talent to make a run with a chance to squeak into the seventh or eighth seed.

Monday, November 24, 2014

Middlebrooks Done in Boston?

Two years ago one of the questions in Boston was who is going to play third for the forseeable future.  The answer so they thought was a young, right handed, power hitter coming up through the minors named Will Middlebrooks.  He showed solid power potential and was given his first extended look that season.

Middlebrooks first full season with the Sox was a mixed bag.  In 94 games he only hit .227, but showed the power was legit with 17 home runs.  He was expected to be the starter throughout the 2014 season with Xander Bogaerts moving to short stop full time.  Bogaerts did move from third but Middlebrooks wasn't able to seize the opportunity.  He struggled in 63 games hitting .191 with only two home runs while also dealing with injuries. Super utility man Brock Holt along with a couple others saw starts in Middlebrooks place.  The replacements didn't set the world on fire but proved to be more productive options at this time. This helped put Middlebrooks future with Boston in question.

This off-season there have been trade rumors for a number of Red Sox players including Middlebrooks.  Nothing was set in stone but the sox have actively sought third basemen in free agency.  Contracts have been offered to former Red Sox short stop Hanley Ramirez and three time World Series champion Pablo Sandoval.

Ramirez was once seen as the short stop of the future in Boston but was shipped to Florida in a block buster trade that involved Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell.  He is a career .300 hitter with 191 home runs and 654 RBIs.  What has made him even more intriguing is that he is open to a position change which could be either third or outfield.  Ramirez agreed to an offer said to be 5 years $90mil with Boston and will be finalizing the deal this week.

Pablo Sandoval has come up with the San Francisco and has played third base exclusively.  He has had some weight issues but the talent is undeniable.  The switch hitter has hit .294 with 106 home runs and 462 RBIs since his debut in 2008.  He claimed that he will make his decision next week, but reports have stated that he is leaning toward taking Boston's 5 year $95mil offer.  It is also said that the Sox may be willing to bring in both players.

The ability to bring in a proven veteren, possibly two, on long term deals can't bode well for Middlebrooks future in Boston.  He also had prospect Garin Ceccini making a case as an in house replacement.  This move along with the depth will most likely have Boston fielding offers for Middlebrooks.  There's no doubt a team will be interested in bringing in a potential power bat to boost their lineup or increase depth.  More clarity will come next week after Sandoval's decision but don't be surprised to see Middlebrooks helping another team this season.

Thursday, November 20, 2014

Our Life Purpose

I know there's a lot of people that will agree on this topic.  It's something I think about every day.  My question is:  Do you ever feel that you are meant to do something?  Like were you put here on Earth to do something for a certain reason.

Obviously this answer will differ from person to person.  Your view can also differ from someone else's view of what you should be doing.  Some are meant to be performers and some teachers.  You may be currently fulfilling your "purpose," but most of us are still searching for the opportunity.

Personally I feel I am meant to be a basketball coach.  I've done it at two levels, but have relocated and have been unable to get back on the sidelines since.  My grasp of the game and ability to recognize and anticipate plays/sets is greater than most people I know.  Concepts and schemes come easily.  For example I went to an Oak Hill Academy game last year and by the second half I was able to consistently to call out the sets/plays they were about to run.  Basketball is what I know and what I feel I've been put here to do.  The bonus...I love the game.

I've shared my perceived purpose and now I'd like to open this up to all of you.  What do you believe you are meant to do?  Are you doing it now or still trying to obtain the goal?  Leave your response as a comment.

Thursday, November 13, 2014

Next Year/Almost There Player Check In

Each month I'll try to check in with the progress of previously mentioned players.  Today we'll talk about some of the guys with smaller or expanding roles who are almost there.  Their impact may be seen this season but is more likely to take that next step next year.

Next Year

Dennis Schroder
I initially projected that this lightning quick point guard would put up 11-3-6 by next year.  He has not seen a significant increase in minutes this year as he is only averaging 1.5 minutes more a game.  Schroder has been more effective on the court and has been a valuable source of scoring.  His 9pt 1.8rb 1.6ast/stl and outrageous .652fg% are all on pace for career highs.  I don't see him being able to sustain such a high shooting percentage as better scouting reports are developed. Expect a drop there but the counting stats should remain similar as he plays his way into a larger role.

Rudy Gobert
I believe Gobert's situation can be most closely related to Gorgui Dieng's in Minnesota.  He is the 3rd big man that specializes in blocking shots and rebounding.  Also like Dieng I mentioned that minutes could be all he needs to showcase his talents.  Minutes have not been high for him seeing he is the backup but he has managed to produce solid per 48 numbers.  So far in 16 minutes a game he's managed 4.6pt 4.5rb 0.8ast 0.4stl and 1.3blk while shooting .591 from the field.  If he can get another 8-10 minutes a game he could consistently flirt with a double double with elite block numbers.

Almost There

Donatas Motiejunas
D Mo has been given the opportunity to start a few games this year due to the injury of Terrence Jones.  The disappointing part was that he did not seize the opportunity and lost the temporary starting job to Kostas Papanikolaou.  He seems to have responded better to coming off the bench as his best game of the young season came directly after the demotion.  D Mo's line so far is 4.9pt 4.7rb 1ast and 0.4stl in 19.3 minutes a game.  He may still be a year away from being a significant contributor to Houston's front line.

CJ McCollum
McCollum has the distinct disadvantage of playing behind a young, all-star caliber player in Damian Lillard.  It will help his development in practices but results in limited game opportunities.  He's actually seen slightly less floor time this year than in his rookie year.  He is averaging 3.7pt 0.6rb and 1.3ast in a meager 10.7 minutes a night.  His average points may not be high but he has shot at a great clip from the line (100%) and deep (.462).  McCollum should be able to take off once out from Lillard's shadow whether it be by injury or trade.

Isaiah Canaan
This year Canaan has done the most of anyone on today's list.  An injury to Patrick Beverley thrust Canaan into the starting role.  He's averaging 9.1pt 2rb 1.4ast and 0.9stl in 23.1 minutes but is highlighted by a 21 point effort against Golden State.  I know I said he's done the most of today's list but his numbers are very similar to Schroder's.  The main difference in the two is that a lot of Schroder's work has been against second units while Canaan has done the majority of his work against starters.  Beverley should be back to 100% soon so Canaan's numbers should drop with the lesser role.  He should continue to receive extended time as a backup though.

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

NBA Immediate Impact 2 Week Check In

Every month we'll take a look at the players in my previous potential sleeper posts to see how they're progressing over the season.

Immediate Impact

Giannis Antetokounmpo
I'll admit, like many analysts, I expected to see more out of the Greek Freak production wise.  Granted it is still early and he has the tools to increase his production over the next couple months.  So far this season he is putting up 10.6pt 5.3rb 3.3ast with 1 3pt/blk/stl in 29.7 minutes a night.  My expectations may be too high for him this season seeing I'm disappointed with this all around production.  Don't sleep on him though because there are just reasons for his projected rise.

Nikola Mirotic
When I first wrote about Mirotic I said he could put up just over 12-4-1 and 1 steal a game given 25 minutes a night.  Joakim Noah and Pau Gasol have been playing great thus far which has significantly limited Mirotic's floor time.  This can be expected when you're part of arguably the deepest front court in the league.  He has managed to work his way into 13.1 minutes a game as the 4th big man.  In that time he has put up 3.5pt 3.1rb 0.9ast 0.4stl/blk a game while shooting great percentages from deep and the foul line (.417 and .900 respectively).  Look for his numbers to rise if given the opportunity.

Gorgui Dieng
I few weeks ago I said Dieng should get a lot more minutes with Kevin Love's departure and could become a double double machine.  Honestly I'm shocked that he is only owned in 10.6% of fantasy leagues on ESPN.  He has earned an increase in minutes this year, although it is less than I expected.  So far he is averaging only 18.7 minutes but is putting up gaudy per48 numbers.  His line is 7.5pt 7rb 0.3ast/stl and 1.7blk with great shooting percentages.  I don't understand how this man gets so overlooked with those elite block numbers, solid rebounding/points, and potential.  If you do feel like waiting then jump on him as soon as his minutes get near 25 minutes.

Nikola Vucevic
I play in a dynasty fantasy league that disbanded two deadbeat owners this past off season dropping the team count to ten.  We had a one round draft for those players dropped by the two teams and I was more than elated to see Vucevic still available with my 9th pick.  He is owned in 100% of ESPN fantasy leagues but is often forgot about by the casual fan because of his injury history and that he's in Orlando.  I had said earlier that he should give a nightly double double while contributing a little everywhere else.  All he's done thus far is put up all-star caliber numbers racking up 18.6pt 12.3rb 2.4ast 1stl 1.1blk in 36.3 minutes a game.  Remember this name and be sure to watch if you get the opportunity.  This man is a beast.

Monday, November 10, 2014

Week 2 NBA Notes

It has been an interesting first two weeks of the NBA season headlined by injuries to key guards and surprising records.

This has not been a good start to the season for guards in terms of health.  Ok I understand we already knew about Rajon Rondo, Victor Oladipo, Michael Carter-Williams, Bradley Beal, Paul George, and Russell Westbrook coming into this week.  I don't know about you, but that's enough injuries to key guards for me.

I guess we'll start with the Celtics.  Rondo came back sooner than expected but is now missing time for a follow up surgery to remove a screw from his hand.  This shouldn't sideline him for too long as he's expected to be back on Wednesday against the short handed Thunder. The Celts are also without their top pick in this years draft, Marcus Smart.  He had a scary moment last week where he came down awkwardly.  Smart may have dodged a bullet being diagnosed with only a left ankle sprain and bone bruise.  These will cause him to miss 2-3 weeks.

This may sound like a familiar story but Derrick Rose is hurt again.  He sprained both ankles and has only played in one of five games this year but is considered a game time decision.  With that said he should be back on the court in the next couple days.

Minnesota has also been bit as their star guard,  Ricky Rubio, went down with a severe ankle sprain.  This is very tough news as it will keep him out for 7-8 weeks.  If the young kids don't come together quick they could very well be near the bottom of the standings.

The league's leading scorer after last week, Klay Thompson, also got hurt with a sprained hand.  He is set to return tomorrow night, but the Warriors suffered their lone loss during his absence.

Houston is another top team missing one of their starting guards.  Point guard Patrick Beverly has been bothered by a hamstring injury the past week and has not played since 11/4.  Isaiah Canaan should continue to fill in until Beverly returns later this week.

Other injured point guards include Steve Nash, Jose Calderon, Raymond Felton, Patty Mills, George Hill.  Some other shooting guards bit by the injury bug include Nick Young, Rodney Stuckey, CJ Miles, and Martell Webster.

There has also been some surprises in the standings thus far.  I'll talk about the three from each conference that are the most unexpected.

One of the biggest surprises of the West is the Sacramento Kings who currently have the fourth best record in the west with a 5-2 record.  I understand they are better this year but really don't see them sustaining this success.  Oklahoma City has also underwhelmed thus far with a 2-5 record but that can mostly be the result of injuries. I touched on them in last week's post.  Mark Cuban has also mentioned a possibility of playing for the lottery this season because of the significant losses.  San Antonio is also below .500 at 2-3.  Don't get too used to this as they are too experienced and talented to be kept down for too long.  I expect them to be back near the top by the end of the month.

The East also has some suprises.  Indiana is as close to Oklahoma City as you can get.  Their best player, Paul George, broke his leg while with Team USA and will miss the entire season.      David West has also been hurt leaving them without their two best players.  No disrespect to Roy Hibbert, but he doesn't consistently play up to his talent level.  They should be better than their 1-6 record, but they should still be in the bottom half of the East this year.

Cleveland has many people pushing the panic button already due to their 2-3 record.  In the words of Aaron Rodgers "R-E-L-A-X."  If you and I played together tonight would we really be that good.  Give them one more week to gain familiarity and trust with each other.  The wins will start piling up real soon.

The final surprise is the success of the Miami Heat.  Many people expected them to fall off with the departure of LeBron James, but all they've done is won to the tune of 5-2.  Chris Bosh has performed like his days in Toronto and Dwyane Wade has also turned back the clock.  I don't see Wade being able to hold up physically for the entire season or Bosh being able to carry the load all year.  With that said, they should be able to continue their streak of playoff appearances.

When all is said and done Oklahoma City should be in the fight for the 7-8 seed.  Sacramento will most likely fall out of the playoff race and be lottery bound again.  San Antonio will pull it together soon and be in the mix as one of the top 4 out West.  Indiana should be in the bottom half of the East and lottery bound.  Cleveland will have a similar track as San Antonio.  They'll come together soon and be a top 3 team in the East.  Miami will still be strong and should finish around the 4-6 seed.

Try not to get caught up in small sample sizes during a long season.  A short term injury or rough stretch in the schedule could skew the numbers.  My last bit of advise today is to always remember to look at the bigger picture and assess all the parts when judging a team.

Monday, November 3, 2014

Week 1 NBA Notes

The first week of the NBA season just finished but not without some big headlines.  I'll touch on a few today in case you missed it.

Down but Not Out
The Oklahoma City Thunder have been hit hard so far this year.  They started the season with injuries to key role players Jeremy Lamb and Reggie Jackson.  The hard luck did not stop there though as Kevin Durant went down with a significant foot injury.  All was not lost though, as the Thunder still had a brilliant point guard in Russell Westbrook.  Westbrook was proving he was up to the task of being the main scoring option until he also went down with a broken hand.  The injury bug has certainly hit hard for Oklahoma City who is now left with just seven available players for next game.

There is a small bright side to the injuries.  After the third game they are allowed to sign an additional player to fill one of the roster spots while the others are out.  Shortly after they will be allowed to add a second player to fill in for Westbrook.  This is a roster exception in place for teams that endure many extended injuries.  It should allow them to have their roster back to nine while waiting for the troops to return.  The injuries will also allow ample opportunity for the "supporting cast" to step up and gain experience.  Perry Jones has been the main benefactor from this as he's put up two big games to start the year.  The extra reps should allow Jones and the other players to gain valuable experience and provide for a deeper bench once the four bigger names return.

Score One for the Kid
Carmello Anthony reached another milestone in his career last night.  In the first quarter against the Charlotte Hornets he received the pass from Shane Larkin for a catch and shoot 3 pointer over Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.  That basket earned him the honor of being in the 20,000 point club solidifying himself in history as one of the most dangerous scorers.  He is now one of 40 players to achieve this milestone and is the sixth youngest player to reach that mark.  Only Lebron James, Kobe Bryant, Wilt Chamberlain, Michael Jordan, and Oscar Robertson reached it at a younger age.  He should pass two more players this week and could make it all the way to number 30 on the all time list if he can match last year's output.

Show Me the Money
There were two players who became very happy this past week.  Ricky Rubio of the Minnesota Timberwolves and Klay Thompson of the Golden State Warriors signed new contract extensions that will take into effect after this season.  This marks the first big pay day for both as Rubio received a 4 year $56 mil deal and Thompson is said to have cashed in with a 4 year $70 mil deal. 

Rubio has been a side note in Minnesota the past few years due to the emergence of Kevin Love but he has been very good at point guard.  Last year Rubio finished last season second in assists behind only John Wall and first in the league in steals.  He also proved it was a good deal as the following night he went off for 6 points, 4 rebounds, 2 steals and tied a career high with 17 assists.  He should continue to be a force with the young and athletic lineup Minnesota has built.

Klay Thompson did his damage as one of the two Splash Brothers.  He finished second in 3 pointers made behind only his fellow Splash Brother, Steph Curry and was 18th in the league in scoring.  Thompson has grown from a complementary player to a major contributor in his short career which is evident by his big contract.  He, like Rubio, went out and proved it was the correct decision.  He currently leads the league in scoring average with 29.7 points per game including a 41 point explosion the day after signing.  He looks to be a top scoring option and perfect compliment to Curry giving Golden State arguably the best back court for years to come.